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02/06/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - This past Saturday had a trio of major stakes races for three-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby trail. Where the winners of the races will start next is not firmly decided.
Odds-favorite Alpha vanquished his rivals in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. Ridden by Ramon Dominguez, the colt stalked the pace and went on to post a 3 1/4-length win over longshot Speightscity.
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said Sunday morning that the colt's next start will be decided after talking to Godolphin Racing's Simon Crisford.
"We'll look at the Gotham/Wood, talk to (racing manager) Simon Crisford and see if we want to run him two more times, or one more time," noted the trainer. "We like having him here in New York."
The Gotham Stakes is slated for March 3 and the Wood Memorial will go off on April 7. McLaughlin indicated he might ship Alpha to Florida to train for the Wood.
Withers runner-up Speightscity, trained by Gary Contessa, is probable for the Gotham. The three-year-old went off for the Withers at 44-1.
"He had a very bad trip (when fifth in the Count Fleet)," Contessa's assistant Marcelo Arenas said Sunday. "But he's a nice horse, and we really think he's the best horse we have in the barn. We believed in him, and he showed us yesterday he can do it. He ran a big race."
At Santa Anita 43-1 longshot I'll Have Another upset the field in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Trainer Doug O'Neill really likes the chestnut colt owned by J. Paul Reddam.
"He's an incredibly talented colt," O'Neill said after the win, "and we decided to take a chance in here. We thought he could hit the board and we'd move forward, but he ran unbelievable. Mario (jockey Mario Gutierrez) gave him a great ride. He's always trained fantastic, but we never saw this coming to be honest with you. This is incredible. We'll look at the Santa Anita Derby."
The $750,000 Santa Anita Derby will go off on April 7 at 1 1/8-miles on Santa Anita's dirt track.
Liaison, the 3-2 favorite in the Lewis, was interfered with down the stretch by Groovin' Solo and lost his jockey Rafael Bejarano.
"I had my hole when I saw two horses that split out," Bejarano observed. "I had plenty of room in between horses. When I asked my horse to go, he was coming little by little, but the horse on the outside (Groovin' Solo) was lugging in a little bit. I started screaming to let him know I was there and he (Victor Espinoza) tried to correct his horse, but at the same time when he corrected his horse, he was just coming in too much.
"The horse on the inside (Isn't He Clever) didnt even give me a chance to check his horse because he was coming out too. At least the outside horse tried to correct himself but the other horse from the inside didn't do that. He just kept going and was coming out little by little, but he didn't even try to check his horse. That's why it felt so tight and I clipped heels. I ended up clipping heels with Victor's horse because Corey Nakatani's horse (Isn't He Clever) was coming out and it was enough to push me out."
Groovin' Solo was disqualified to last after crossing the finish line in third.
Unlike I'll Have Another who went from 12-1 in the morning-line to 43-1, Battle Hardened went off at 9-2 from 12-1 in the program. Trained by Eddie Kenneally, Battle Hardened broke his maiden with the win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.
"We'll definitely take a real good look at the Tampa Bay Derby (March 10) and it's very likely," Kenneally said following Saturday's win. "We knew when his races started to go longer he was going to be a better horse. Two-turn races are what he wants to do and he is very good at it."
Coming up this Saturday is the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
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Considering big expectations follow the s
Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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